Wednesday, June 17, 2015
The remnants of Hurricane Bill that brought flooding to Texas are beginning to show some effect in SW Indiana. Since evening yesterday, we have received 1.3″ (34mm) rain. Our flat fields are surviving this heavier rain in an okay manner so far, but the little beans in the bottoms of WASCoBs are damaged. When tuning in to the Weather Channel, they are predicting as much as 5″ to come in this event. The WeatherNation Channel is saying 1.5 to 2.5 for us. I’ll go with WeatherNation this time!
According to this Weather Channel map, we are near the eastern tip of the yellow band, indicating 3-5″ rain through Friday.
A huge rainmaker event around Indianapolis will create a flooding problem in our fields adjacent to White River. Any time they get 4″ up there, we see it here as a flooding event about 5 days later. The White River at Edwardsport is currently forecast to crest at 15.5 feet on Sunday, which is 1/2 foot above flood stage. That’s what they call a ‘minor flood’. That level will not bring us much trouble, but with the remains of Hurricane Bill, that might be revised upward! An 18-19 foot river crest will definitely bring significant damage.
Here is this morning’s hydrological forecast for West Fork of White River at Edwardsport, Indiana. Minor flooding, at least so far! Our fields are about a day’s flow down river from Edwardsport. Therefore, we will see the crest sometime Monday.
A big rain locally can bring ponding on our flat fields like at Burke, Huey, Pond, Waldo, Dunn, or Dunlap. So, we are hoping that the rain totals are below 2.5″ and that such amount is spread out over the next 3 or 4 days. Rain chances are 80-90% through Saturday.
I think the rainy month of June is beginning to affect the commodity markets for corn and soybeans. I understand there are about 12 million acres of soybeans yet unplanted across the nation. Yield potential decreases with every passing day… it’ll soon be July. For example, if the rain stopped today, it would be about the 24th before we could get back into most fields for replanting, and the yield potential would be a fraction of the April- or May-planted soybeans. If we would lose corn to flooding (not likely because of where it’s planted this year) it would already be too late to replant corn.
Perhaps Hurricane Bill will wring itself out before its full effects arrive in SW Indiana.
